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Post by ReZourceman (Dark Force) on Mar 30, 2011 15:27:48 GMT
Rez all I ask is that you are kind in this write up and I'll love you forever if not we may be fooked. I'll do my best, but can't promise people won't be seen. There was a reason that Dannyboy (for example) wasn't in yesterdays write up. And that reason has gone.
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Post by Jonnas (Cybernetic Mewtwo) on Mar 30, 2011 15:31:35 GMT
The problem with Tales' roleclaim, now that I read it more carefully, is that it could easily be a mafia role, with some parts omitted. None of that can be a direct lie. Damn, I'd say he was mafia simply by avoiding saying "I'm good" What about his old post that says "I never lied"? That can be analysed, no?
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Post by Jonnas (Cybernetic Mewtwo) on Mar 30, 2011 15:32:16 GMT
Whoa, ReZ! You're scaring me. Maybe we should go for the previous plan?
EDIT: Of course, if all goes well, it doesn't matter if Danny gets found out... But that's a HUGE if.
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Post by Jonnas (Cybernetic Mewtwo) on Mar 30, 2011 15:35:02 GMT
Wait, I just realized that the "Brute" part might be a lie, and related to why you felt that headache, Danny.
Speaking of the headache, you should say you felt it again.
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Post by Dannyboy (Jynx) on Mar 30, 2011 15:36:32 GMT
Well, then the omitted part could be that he's part of the mafia, can sacrifice his nightpower to kill and will win alongside the rest of the mafia when they reach majority. That would be about 20-30% of the entire PM, no?
Sure, we could analyse his "I never lied!" post, but it's far too vague to get a lynch going on, especially at this point in the game. It would at best/worst lead to questioning, and we can't afford to get much of a debate going. We need a quick lynch in order to survive this dayphase, especially if the write-up is against us.
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Post by Dannyboy (Jynx) on Mar 30, 2011 15:37:11 GMT
Good point about the headache!
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Post by Jonnas (Cybernetic Mewtwo) on Mar 30, 2011 15:43:21 GMT
Also, you analyzed Page 11 with 25 posts per page, right? The untruthful 25% you analysed earlier could be related to him saying the beeps could be mafia and related to Nintendohnut (but he "knew they weren't"). Useful for tomorrow if you need more arguments.
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Post by Jonnas (Cybernetic Mewtwo) on Mar 30, 2011 15:48:43 GMT
Well, if you feel you're ready to go, go, but I think Dohnut should be around to hammer the last vote. Have him disagree with you at first, causing some inner confusion on Peeps or mr-paul (or Diageo/MadDog if they are somehow around), someone will follow you and BAM! Last vote, we win.
I'm still unsure about you appearing in the write-up, but you seem confident about this...
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Post by Dannyboy (Jynx) on Mar 30, 2011 15:51:27 GMT
I haven't analysed page 11 with 25 ppp. I've analysed Tales on 13 with 40 ppp.
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Post by Dannyboy (Jynx) on Mar 30, 2011 15:56:43 GMT
I think we should wait for Dohnut first. I think Peeps is very trusting of his own investigations - he seems to trust me and Dohnut a lot. But yeah, we need another townie to vote after me, then Dohnut can hammer it home. I'm not confident about this, I'm frakkin' nervous about this! But it's the best plan we can come up with. Dohnut will have a fine excuse, my investigations are generally trusted, and with me having reinforced the suspicion on Tales earlier it should work. Our victory now hinges on the nightphase and its write-up.
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Post by Jonnas (Cybernetic Mewtwo) on Mar 30, 2011 16:04:20 GMT
I haven't analysed page 11 with 25 ppp. I've analysed Tales on 13 with 40 ppp. Hmm... Not enough for 25%. Nothing that favours us, except for him claiming he has a power named "Brute", which could only be a very farfetch'd lie. Can't use your previous investigation as an argument, unfortunately. We can only cross our fingers, now... and wait for Dohnut.
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Post by Jonnas (Cybernetic Mewtwo) on Mar 30, 2011 16:07:03 GMT
A horrible thought just crossed my mind: what if MadDog is targeting you, and highlighting you in the write-up? There's no escaping that.
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Post by Dannyboy (Jynx) on Mar 30, 2011 16:11:52 GMT
Then we go down in a horrible, blazing inferno of hellfire.
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Post by Dannyboy (Jynx) on Mar 30, 2011 16:15:22 GMT
Thinking about it, if I AM revealed as the killer, I can try to think up some excuse for the write-up being wrong. Depending on the wording of it all, perhaps I could blame the doomsday thingie for messing up the write-up.
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Post by Dannyboy (Jynx) on Mar 30, 2011 16:26:19 GMT
I need to go eat dinner now, but I've worded a post that I intend to post first thing after the nightphase. Tell me what you think:
---
(Insert comment about how the doomsday device worked, feigning relief that it didn't win the game for the mafia etc. and possibly commenting on it messing up the write-up if my actions are visible.)
ANYWAY!
So seeing as I have been very suspicious of Tales for some time now, I asked ReZ if it was possible for me to test the validity of Tales's role PM by using my power on the post in which he revealed it. He said that I could still only use my power on pages, but that the role PM claim would be counted as a statement on that page. Ergo, if something had been altered or deleted in the PM, it would be counted as a lie. Thus I analysed page 223 with 5 posts per page (which only had one other post on it from Tales, one of little importance) - and lo and behold, he actually did lie about his role PM!
He specifically only told 60-66% truths on that page, meaning that a good deal of that PM was inaccurate! Either he lied about his powers - which I find unlikely since we've seen them in effect - OR! And this is the explanation I find most likely - he lied about retaining his previous role and left out the part that stated he is part of the mafia and will win alongside them!
My suspicions have definitely been confirmed. Tales is no good.
Vote: Tales
(The 60-66% is my judgement call on how high a truth percentage his posts on that page would have if what I suggest were true.)
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